Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Kaszek Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.7% (8 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.4%–90.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+26.9 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 45.8%
Vs median VC book
+15.6 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 57.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-0.2 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 73.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.4 pp
72.7% on 11 deals vs 78.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
40
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PedidosYa / PedidosJápedidosya.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| ZupCatzupcat.com | 2011 | No | 67 | — |
| Beleza na Webbelezanaweb.com.br | 2011 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Pitzipitzi.com.br | 2012 | Yes | 49 | — |
| ComparaOnlinecomparaonline.com.br | 2012 | Yes | 47 | — |
| MadeiraMadeiramadeiramadeira.com.br | 2012 | Yes | 40 | — |
| PetLovepetlove.com.br | 2011 | No | 25 | — |
| GOintegrogointegro.com | 2012 | Yes | 24 | — |
| GetNinjasgetninjas.com.br | 2011 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Eventiozeventioz.com | 2011 | Yes | 20 | — |
| OQVestiroqvestir.com.br | 2011 | No | 15 | — |