Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Kennet Partners vs Kairos
21st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 47.4% (9 of 19 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 27.3%–68.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 34th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+2.4 pp
47.4% on 19 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
-6.1 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 56.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.2 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 71.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-25.9 pp
43.8% on 16 deals vs 69.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 18 of 19 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
51
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 42.9% (6 of 14). 95% Wilson interval 21.4%–67.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+30.1 pp
42.9% on 14 deals vs 12.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
19 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AcademixDirectacademixdirect.com | 2009 | No | 94 | — |
| goviralgoviral.com | 2009 | No | 86 | — |
| KEMP Technologieskemptechnologies.com | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Trademobtrademob.com | 2012 | No | 75 | — |
| Envox Groupenvox.com | 2004 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Next Performancenextperformance.com | 2011 | No | 69 | — |
| Recommindrecommind.com | 2008 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Kapow Softwarekapowsoftware.com | 2005 | No | 54 | — |
| Revolution Preprevolutionprep.com | 2010 | No | 49 | — |
| Advivaspecificmedia.com | 2004 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Schoolwiresschoolwires.com | 2009 | No | 46 | — |
| Prolexic Technologiesprolexic.com | 2011 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Daptivdaptiv.com | 2005 | Yes | 35 | — |
| SERMO (formerly WorldOne)sermo.com | 2011 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Conversicaconversica.com | 2013 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Resilienceresilience.com | 2006 | No | 27 | — |
| Chipidea Microelectrónica | 2005 | Yes | 15 | — |
| NTRglobalntrglobal.com | 2008 | No | 10 | — |
| Volantis Systemsvolantis.com | 2000 | No | — | — |