Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Kepha Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (6 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.4%–87.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+22.2 pp
66.7% on 9 deals vs 44.4%
Vs median VC book
+10.3 pp
66.7% on 9 deals vs 56.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-4.5 pp
66.7% on 9 deals vs 71.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.6 pp
66.7% on 9 deals vs 72.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
85
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+21.0 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 12.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gobygoby.com | 2010 | No | 93 | — |
| VoltDBvoltdb.com | 2010 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Boundlessboundless.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Omoi (formerly Azuki)omoi.com | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Clozecloze.com | 2012 | No | 90 | — |
| HapYak Interactive Videohapyak.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Linkable Networkslinkablenetworks.com | 2010 | Yes | 80 | — |
| On The Spot Systemsonthespotsystems.com | 2012 | No | 76 | — |
| AutoVirtautovirt.com | 2007 | Yes | 58 | — |