Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Kernel Capital Partners vs Kairos
2nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 6.7% (1 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 1.2%–29.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 3rd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-38.7 pp
6.7% on 15 deals vs 45.4%
Vs median VC book
-50.7 pp
6.7% on 15 deals vs 57.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-66.4 pp
6.7% on 15 deals vs 73.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-67.1 pp
6.7% on 15 deals vs 73.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
37
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (2 of 8). 95% Wilson interval 7.1%–59.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+13.5 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 11.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 7 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ChipSensorschipsensors.com | 2007 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Teamerteamer.net | 2010 | No | 76 | — |
| Sonru.comsonru.com | 2010 | No | 57 | — |
| ResourceKraftresourcekraft.com | 2010 | No | 56 | — |
| Nomos Softwarenomos-software.com | 2012 | No | 50 | — |
| MPSTORmpstor.com | 2009 | No | 38 | — |
| XINTECxintec.com | 2012 | No | 36 | — |
| In Hand Guidesinhandguides.com | 2012 | No | 35 | — |
| Radisens Diagnosticsradisens.com | 2011 | No | 28 | — |
| BioAtlantisbioatlantis.com | 2010 | No | 22 | — |
| InishTechinishtech.com | 2010 | No | 16 | — |
| neoSurgicalneosurgical.com | 2011 | No | 16 | — |
| Ikon Semiconductorikonsemi.com | 2011 | No | 15 | — |
| Hybrid Energy Solutionshybrid.ie | 2011 | No | 13 | — |
| Biocroà | 2011 | No | 11 | — |
| Nines Photovoltaicsnines-pv.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Tapastreettapastreet.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Zinc softwarezincsoftware.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| FeedHenryfeedhenry.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| TCAS Onlinetcasonline.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Monford Ag Systemsgrassometer.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Amartusamartus.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |