Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Keynote Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 100.0% (6 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 61.0%–100.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+56.3 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 43.7%
Vs median VC book
+46.3 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 53.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+31.3 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 68.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+41.1 pp
100.0% on 6 deals vs 58.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
59
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.6 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| F-Originf-origin.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Mixamomixamo.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| iPolicy Networksipolicynet.com | 2005 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Link_A_ Medialink-a-media.com | 2008 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Link_A_Media Deviceslinkamedia.com | 2009 | Yes | 38 | — |
| SK hynixskhynix.com | 2008 | Yes | 6 | — |