Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Khosla Ventures vs Kairos
93rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 72.1% (49 of 68 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 60.4%–81.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 76th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+26.5 pp
72.1% on 68 deals vs 45.6%
Vs median VC book
+14.0 pp
72.1% on 68 deals vs 58.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-1.7 pp
72.1% on 68 deals vs 73.8%
Vs Y Combinator
+9.3 pp
73.1% on 67 deals vs 63.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
66
Mean model percentile
74
Flagged deals
43/4 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 29.8% (14 of 47). 95% Wilson interval 18.7%–44.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.1 pp
29.8% on 47 deals vs 12.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
68 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Squaresquareup.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Skybox Imagingskyboximaging.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| MoVoxxmovoxx.com | 2008 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Sakti3sakti3.com | 2009 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Sand 9sand9.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| db4objectsdb4o.com | 2007 | No | 98 | — |
| Solumsolumtech.com | 2010 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Rayspanrayspan.com | 2009 | No | 96 | — |
| iKoaikoa.com | 2007 | Yes | 95 | — |
| NanoH2Onanoh2o.com | 2007 | No | 95 | — |
| Stionstion.com | 2007 | No | 95 | — |
| Seeoseeo.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| ZocDoczocdoc.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Virdiavirdia.com | 2009 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Greenlight Biosciencesglbiosciences.com | 2013 | Yes | 93 | — |
| ParStreamparstream.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| moka5moka5.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| iSkootiskoot.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Ness Computinglikeness.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| LS9ls9.com | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Soraasoraa.com | 2008 | Yes | 89 | — |
| EcoMotorsecomotors.com | 2008 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Kiorkior.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Bidgelybidgely.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| ClearStory Dataclearstorydata.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| FuzeBoxfuzebox.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Touchstone Semiconductortouchstonesemi.com | 2011 | No | 85 | — |
| Kaai | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Segetissegetis.com | 2007 | Yes | 83 | — |
| LightSail Energylightsail.com | 2012 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Coskatacoskata.com | 2008 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Cylancecylance.com | 2013 | Yes | 80 | — |
| LanzaTechlanzatech.com | 2007 | No | 80 | — |
| RingCentralringcentral.com | 2007 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Peekpeek.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| LearnStreetlearnstreet.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| Jetpacjetpac.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| Pymetricspymetrics.com | 2013 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Ausraausra.com | 2007 | Yes | 78 | — |
| TightDBtightdb.com | 2013 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Neverwareneverware.com | 2013 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Hampton Creekhamptoncreek.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Consumer Physicsconsumerphysics.com | 2012 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Indexindex.com | 2013 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Tap to Learntaptolearn.com | 2011 | Yes | 71 | — |
| AppNexusappnexus.com | 2007 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Draths Corporationdrathscorporation.com | 2007 | No | 68 | — |
| Gevogevo.com | 2007 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Frengofrengo.com | 2006 | Yes | 65 | — |
| AltaRock Energyaltarockenergy.com | 2008 | No | 62 | — |
| Mascomamascoma.com | 2006 | Yes | 56 | — |
| PAX Streamlinepaxstreamline.com | 2008 | No | 55 | — |
| Oscarhioscar.com | 2013 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Amyris Biotechnologiesamyris.com | 2006 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Grokkergrokker.com | 2013 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Idibonidibon.com | 2013 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Xsigoxsigo.com | 2009 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Contrail Systemscontrailsystems.com | 2012 | No | 45 | — |
| Topanga Technologiestopangatech.com | 2008 | No | 43 | — |
| Reloaded Games, Inc.reloadedinc.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Cinemagramcinemagr.am | 2012 | No | 39 | — |
| Nanostellarnanostellar.com | 2004 | No | 28 | — |
| Lumenz | 2008 | Yes | 17 | — |
| Group IV Semiconductorgroupivsemi.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| Veebeamveebeam.com | 2010 | No | 15 | — |
| Range Fuelsrangefuels.com | 2008 | Yes | 11 | — |
| Simplersimpler.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ALOHAaloha.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| BBOXXbboxx.co.uk | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| InstantCabinstantcab.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |