Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Kickstart Seed Fund vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (3 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.8%–81.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+2.2 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 47.8%
Vs median VC book
-11.8 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 61.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-27.2 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 77.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-26.4 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 76.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
53
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DropShipdropship.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| GroSocialgrosocial.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Juxta Labsjuxtalabs.com | 2011 | No | 61 | — |
| Work Inspireworkinspire.com | 2012 | No | 49 | — |
| Overlay Studio | 2013 | Yes | 33 | — |
| JackRabbit Systemsjackrabbitsystems.com | 2010 | No | 13 | — |
| Lykslyks.co | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| PowerPotthepowerpot.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |