Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Kima Ventures vs Kairos
60th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 63.6% (28 of 44 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.9%–76.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 59th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+16.5 pp
63.6% on 44 deals vs 47.1%
Vs median VC book
+2.3 pp
63.6% on 44 deals vs 61.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-13.9 pp
63.6% on 44 deals vs 77.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-11.6 pp
63.6% on 44 deals vs 75.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
42
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 47.1% (8 of 17). 95% Wilson interval 26.2%–69.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+35.7 pp
47.1% on 17 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
44 labeled follow-on deals, 5 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ifeelgoodsifeelgoods.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Assured Laborassuredlabor.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Chartiochartio.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Plyceplyce.com | 2010 | Yes | 92 | — |
| LaunchKeylaunchkey.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Visual Revenuevisualrevenue.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Scovillegoscoville.com | 2010 | No | 89 | — |
| Brass Monkeyplaybrassmonkey.com | 2012 | No | 88 | — |
| AstroloMeastrolome.com | 2011 | No | 87 | — |
| Saygentsaygent.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Manpacksmanpacks.com | 2011 | No | 86 | — |
| iKnowlartsly.co | 2012 | No | 85 | — |
| Kukunukukunu.com | 2010 | No | 85 | — |
| Movable Inkmovableink.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| AppMakrappmakr.com | 2010 | No | 84 | — |
| Zoozzooz.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Lengowlengow.com | 2010 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Boxcarboxcar.io | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| Adilityadility.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Wibbitzwibbitz.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Boatboundboatbound.co | 2012 | Yes | 79 | — |
| ecomomecomom.com | 2010 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Storificstorific.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| YellowBrckyellowbrck.com | 2011 | No | 76 | — |
| DocRundocrun.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Mashed Pixelmashedpixel.com | 2010 | No | 74 | — |
| Useful Systemsusefulsystemsinc.com | 2013 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Tulip Retailtulip.io | 2013 | No | 67 | — |
| Homelochomeloc.com | 2012 | No | 67 | — |
| eSharesesharesinc.com | 2013 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Prêt d’Unionpret-dunion.fr | 2010 | Yes | 66 | — |
| spotfluxspotflux.com | 2011 | Yes | 64 | — |
| BrightArchbrightarch.com | 2011 | No | 64 | — |
| Adyoulikeadyoulike.com | 2011 | Yes | 63 | — |
| OpenSearchServeropen-search-server.com | 2011 | No | 58 | — |
| TicTacTitictacti.com | 2011 | No | 53 | — |
| KOALA.CHkoala.ch | 2010 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Covertixcovertix.com | 2010 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Sparrowsprw.me | 2011 | No | 42 | — |
| Quandoraquandora.com | 2013 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Fooducatefooducate.com | 2010 | Yes | 28 | — |
| DeckDAQdeckdaq.com | 2011 | Yes | 22 | — |
| Zulazulaapp.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Vonjourvonjour.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Quote Rollerquoteroller.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Tickengotickengo.com | 2011 | Unobserved | — | — |
| 22seeds22seeds.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Blottrblottr.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Kiwupkiwup.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |