Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Kinetic Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 83.3% (5 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 43.6%–97.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+38.7 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 44.6%
Vs median VC book
+21.4 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 58.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+6.3 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 73.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+5.1 pp
75.0% on 4 deals vs 69.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 5 of 6 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
74
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Altierrealtierre.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| AnyPresenceanypresence.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Ample Communicationsamplepk.net | 2004 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Pathfirepathfire.com | 2007 | No | 56 | — |
| 9Lenses9lenses.com | 2013 | Yes | 53 | — |
| SmartSynchsmartsynch.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |
| SwiftTestswifttest.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |