Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Kite Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (5 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.9%–91.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.4%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+25.0 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 46.4%
Vs median VC book
+14.3 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 57.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.1 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 73.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+0.3 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 71.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AlterGeoplatform.altergeo.ru | 2009 | Yes | 89 | — |
| HitFox Grouphitfoxgroup.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Ostrovokostrovok.ru | 2011 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Lieferheldlieferheld.de | 2011 | No | 71 | — |
| Auctionataauctionata.com | 2012 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Pixonicpixonic.com | 2011 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Kanobu Networkkanobu.ru | 2009 | No | 43 | — |