Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Kodiak Venture Partners vs Kairos
77th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (20 of 30 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.8%–80.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 75th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+25.7 pp
66.7% on 30 deals vs 40.9%
Vs median VC book
+16.1 pp
66.7% on 30 deals vs 50.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
+1.2 pp
66.7% on 30 deals vs 65.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-12.0 pp
54.5% on 22 deals vs 66.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
30
Mean model percentile
61
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 24.1% (7 of 29). 95% Wilson interval 12.2%–42.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+9.5 pp
24.1% on 29 deals vs 14.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
30 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SpaceClaimspaceclaim.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Fluxion Biosciencesfluxionbio.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| Greenlight Biosciencesglbiosciences.com | 2013 | Yes | 93 | — |
| ideeliideeli.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Recordantrecordant.com | 2006 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Newformanewforma.com | 2005 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Allegro Diagnosticsallegrodx.com | 2011 | No | 82 | — |
| K-MOTION Interactivek-vest.com | 2005 | No | 82 | — |
| Airwide Solutionsairwidesolutions.com | 2004 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Hanger Network In-Home Mediahangernetwork.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| iAmplifyiamplify.com | 2007 | No | 77 | — |
| Azimuth Systemsazimuthsystems.com | 2003 | Yes | 77 | — |
| ChannelAdvisorchanneladvisor.com | 2004 | Yes | 73 | — |
| HighRoadshighroads.com | 2004 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Vivace Semiconductor | 2006 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Live Gamerlivegamer.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Soflow | 2006 | No | 61 | — |
| Xerographic Document Solutionsxdsinc.com | 2006 | No | 57 | — |
| TRAtraglobal.com | 2009 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Tribotek | 2005 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Application Securityappsecinc.com | 2004 | Yes | 44 | — |
| HiWiredhiwired.com | 2008 | No | 44 | — |
| sentitO Networks | 2003 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Potentia Semiconductor | 2005 | No | 37 | — |
| Enforaenfora.com | 2006 | No | 36 | — |
| ULocate Communicationsulocate.com | 2007 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Cortina Systemscortina-systems.com | 2005 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Tropic Networks | 2003 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Simpler Networkssimplernetworks.com | 2004 | Yes | 19 | — |
| RMI Corporationrmicorp.com | 2006 | No | 3 | — |