Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
KPG Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 54.5% (6 of 11 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 28.0%–78.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 11.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.3 pp
54.5% on 11 deals vs 45.2%
Vs median VC book
-0.2 pp
54.5% on 11 deals vs 54.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.9 pp
54.5% on 11 deals vs 70.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.7 pp
54.5% on 11 deals vs 60.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
11
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 55.6% (5 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 26.7%–81.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+43.5 pp
55.6% on 9 deals vs 12.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
11 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SezWhosezwho.com | 2007 | No | 91 | — |
| TuneUptuneupmedia.com | 2009 | Yes | 91 | — |
| ORCA, Inc.orcaone.com | 2009 | No | 89 | — |
| MindMeldexpectlabs.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Ribbitribbit.com | 2006 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Sociable Labssociablelabs.com | 2009 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Lexylexy.com | 2009 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Sportgenicsportgenic.com | 2007 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Jildyjildy.com | 2011 | No | 42 | — |
| Ludic Labsludic-labs.com | 2009 | No | 19 | — |
| Doppelgangerdoppelganger.com | 2007 | No | 10 | — |