Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Labrador Ventures vs Kairos
27th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (9 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 29.0%–71.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 41st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+7.0 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 43.0%
Vs median VC book
-3.1 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 53.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-16.7 pp
50.0% on 18 deals vs 66.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-22.4 pp
47.1% on 17 deals vs 69.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
18
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 22.2% (4 of 18). 95% Wilson interval 9.0%–45.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+7.8 pp
22.2% on 18 deals vs 14.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scifinitiscifiniti.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Rocket Fuelrocketfuel.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Veekerveeker.com | 2007 | No | 95 | — |
| Mixbookmixbook.com | 2008 | No | 93 | — |
| Altierrealtierre.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Akira Technologiesakira-tech.com | 2005 | No | 83 | — |
| Flipora | 2008 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Jangljangl.com | 2005 | Yes | 78 | — |
| U4EA Wirelessu4eawireless.net | 2005 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Traverse Networks | 2005 | No | 69 | — |
| EoPlex Technologieseoplex.com | 2004 | Yes | 57 | — |
| WiredBenefitswiredbenefits.com | 2007 | No | 54 | — |
| Reveal Technology | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Ultrivaultriva.com | 2005 | No | 44 | — |
| AdECNadecn.com | 2006 | No | 43 | — |
| SST Inc. (Formerly ShotSpotter)shotspotter.com | 2006 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Integrated Materialsintegratedmaterials.com | 2005 | No | 32 | — |
| NextHop Technologiesnexthop.com | 2006 | Yes | 15 | — |