Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

LaunchPad Venture Group vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.4%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

+8.7 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 48.4%

Vs median VC book

-5.7 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 62.9%

Vs top-quartile VC

-21.4 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 78.5%

Vs Y Combinator

-14.7 pp

57.1% on 7 deals vs 71.8%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
Content Ravencontentraven.com	2013	Yes	98	—
EveryScapeeveryscape.com	2005	No	97	—
Bliss Healthcareblisshealthcare.com	2011	No	82	—
JAM Technologies	2006	No	67	—
Groupize.comgroupize.com	2013	Yes	45	—
GateRocketgaterocket.com	2006	Yes	32	—
Char Softwarecharsoftware.com	2010	Yes	22	—