Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Leapfrog Ventures vs Kairos
50th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 61.1% (11 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 38.6%–79.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 64th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+18.7 pp
61.1% on 18 deals vs 42.4%
Vs median VC book
+8.0 pp
58.8% on 17 deals vs 50.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-7.5 pp
58.8% on 17 deals vs 66.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-3.4 pp
62.5% on 16 deals vs 65.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 17 of 18 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
75
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 43.8% (7 of 16). 95% Wilson interval 23.1%–66.8%.
Vs exit base rate
+29.2 pp
43.8% on 16 deals vs 14.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Compassoftcompassoft.com | 2003 | No | 100 | Yes |
| Marble Securitymarblesecurity.com | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Krillionkrillion.com | 2006 | No | 97 | — |
| Cloud9cloud9analytics.com | 2006 | Yes | 97 | — |
| PureWave Networkspwnets.com | 2008 | No | 93 | — |
| Silver Tail Systemssilvertailsystems.com | 2008 | Yes | 91 | — |
| FastScaleTechnologyfastscale.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| HotLinkhotlink.com | 2011 | No | 87 | — |
| Netli | 2006 | No | 84 | — |
| RedSeal, Inc.redseal.co | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Zebit, Inc.zebit.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Contactualcontactual.com | 2006 | No | 69 | — |
| Vastvast.com | 2005 | No | 65 | — |
| OjOs.comojos.com | 2006 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Avaakavaak.com | 2008 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Radar Networksradarnetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 35 | — |
| Like.comlike.com | 2005 | Yes | 15 | — |
| OuterBay Technologiesouterbay.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |