Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Learn Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.9 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 47.3%
Vs median VC book
-3.0 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 60.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-17.0 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 74.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-17.4 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 74.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
76
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HireArthireart.com | 2012 | No | 91 | — |
| Edmodoedmodo.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| OpenStudyopenstudy.com | 2008 | No | 88 | — |
| Chromatikchromatik.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Blocbloc.io | 2012 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Maker's Rowmakersrow.com | 2013 | Yes | 54 | — |
| OneSchooloneschool.com | 2012 | No | 40 | — |