Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Legend Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-17.8 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 46.3%
Vs median VC book
-29.9 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 58.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-46.0 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 74.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-37.1 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 65.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
38
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parade Technologiesparadetech.com | 2007 | No | 77 | — |
| 21Cake Food Co.21cake.com | 2010 | No | 67 | — |
| Shenzhen Jucheng Enterprise Management Consulting Co | 2010 | No | 47 | — |
| Tencho Technologytenchotech.com | 2009 | No | 19 | — |
| Renren Inc.renren-inc.com | 2006 | Yes | 14 | — |
| VanceInfo Technologiesvanceinfo.com | 2006 | No | 6 | — |
| Vhallvhall.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |