Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Lerer Hippeau Ventures vs Kairos
86th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 73.8% (45 of 61 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 61.6%–83.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.7%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 74th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+25.1 pp
73.8% on 61 deals vs 48.7%
Vs median VC book
+10.2 pp
73.8% on 61 deals vs 63.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-4.7 pp
73.8% on 61 deals vs 78.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-1.9 pp
73.8% on 61 deals vs 75.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
55
Mean model percentile
78
Flagged deals
22/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 60.7% (17 of 28). 95% Wilson interval 42.4%–76.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+49.4 pp
60.7% on 28 deals vs 11.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
61 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Composemongohq.com | 2011 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| UberMediaubermedia.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Group Commercegroupcommerce.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Spanfeller Media Groupspanfellergroup.com | 2010 | Yes | 98 | — |
| LiveIntentliveintent.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Ze Frank Gameszefrank.com | 2010 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Appsfireappsfire.com | 2010 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Canvas Networkscanv.as | 2010 | Yes | 95 | — |
| GroupMegroupme.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Popdustpopdust.com | 2011 | Yes | 93 | — |
| SmartThingssmartthings.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Visual Revenuevisualrevenue.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Flooredfloored.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| SHIFTshift.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Spindlespindle.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| ActionXactionx.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| RebelMouserebelmouse.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Poptippoptip.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| BaubleBarbaublebar.com | 2010 | Yes | 87 | — |
| CasaHopcasahop.com | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| Sunglasssunglass.io | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| Metaresolvermetaresolver.com | 2012 | No | 86 | — |
| Neighborlandneighborland.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Kingfish Labsyoke.me | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Frontbackfrontback.me | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Consumrconsumr.com | 2012 | No | 84 | — |
| JOORjooraccess.com | 2011 | Yes | 84 | — |
| RJMetricsrjmetrics.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| IFTTTifttt.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Pronounpronoun.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Sookasasookasa.com | 2012 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Tapadtapad.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Birchboxbirchbox.com | 2010 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Percolatepercolate.com | 2011 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Everlaneeverlane.com | 2011 | No | 79 | — |
| Runscoperunscope.com | 2013 | Yes | 78 | — |
| GoodRxgoodrx.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Branchbranch.com | 2012 | No | 75 | — |
| Thrillist Media Groupthrillist.com | 2012 | No | 75 | — |
| Covercover.com | 2013 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Hipsterhipster.com | 2011 | No | 74 | — |
| Knozenknozen.com | 2013 | No | 74 | — |
| VHXvhx.tv | 2012 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Newslenewsle.com | 2012 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Into The Glossintothegloss.com | 2013 | No | 69 | — |
| Tulip Retailtulip.io | 2013 | No | 67 | — |
| Jibejibe.com | 2010 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Doctor on Demanddoctorondemand.com | 2013 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Axialaxialcompute.com | 2010 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Obviousobvious.com | 2012 | No | 46 | — |
| Dering Hallderinghall.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Carnivalcarnivalmobile.com | 2013 | No | 34 | — |
| Mopedmoped.com | 2012 | No | 22 | — |
| Yoke | 2011 | No | 19 | — |
| Editoriallyeditorially.com | 2012 | No | 15 | — |
| PandoDailypando.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Maxwell Healthmaxwellhealth.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Splicesplice.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Hoteles y Clubs de Vacaciones SA | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Skiftskift.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Startupsstartups.in | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| NowThis Newsnowthisnews.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Just Sing Itjustsingit.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Somadrinksoma.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |