Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Levensohn Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.7%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-12.2 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 40.7%
Vs median VC book
-16.0 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 49.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-32.2 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 65.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-38.7 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 58.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 6 of 7 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
37
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 57.1% (4 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 25.0%–84.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+43.0 pp
57.1% on 7 deals vs 14.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Levantalevanta.com | 2007 | No | 55 | — |
| Raptrapt.com | 2006 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Reconnexreconnex.net | 2006 | No | 46 | — |
| Veraz Networksveraznetworks.com | 2007 | No | 45 | — |
| Radiance | 2008 | No | 14 | — |
| Ubicomubicom.com | 2004 | Yes | 12 | — |
| BigFixbigfix.com | 2002 | No | — | — |