Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Life Sciences Partners vs Kairos
65th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.6% (12 of 17 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 46.9%–86.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 77th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.0 pp
70.6% on 17 deals vs 43.6%
Vs median VC book
+16.3 pp
70.6% on 17 deals vs 54.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
+0.5 pp
70.6% on 17 deals vs 70.1%
Vs Y Combinator
+7.1 pp
70.6% on 17 deals vs 63.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
52
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 30.8% (4 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 12.7%–57.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.5 pp
30.8% on 13 deals vs 13.3%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
17 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DNagednage.nl | 2005 | No | 93 | — |
| Sapienssapiensneuro.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Curetiscuretis.com | 2009 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Pronotapronota.com | 2006 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Atlas Geneticsatlasgenetics.com | 2011 | Yes | 68 | — |
| FlowCardiaflowcardia.com | 2007 | No | 64 | — |
| Movetismovetis.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Promethera Biosciencespromethera.com | 2010 | Yes | 57 | — |
| Merusmerus.nl | 2010 | No | 57 | — |
| Kreatech Diagnosticskreatech.com | 2009 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Probiodrugprobiodrug.de | 2009 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Cellerixcellerix.com | 2007 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Nexstimnexstim.com | 2007 | No | 34 | — |
| BMEYEbmeye.com | 2006 | Yes | 32 | — |
| Mendormendor.com | 2011 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Isto Technologiesistotech.com | 2007 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Kiadis Pharmakiadis.com | 2007 | No | 9 | — |