Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Lifeline Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.0% (7 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.7%–89.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+21.8 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 48.2%
Vs median VC book
+7.0 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 63.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-8.2 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 78.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-5.7 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 75.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
46
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 60.0% (3 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 23.1%–88.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+48.6 pp
60.0% on 5 deals vs 11.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Playmysongplaymysong.com | 2012 | No | 78 | — |
| Applifierapplifier.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Grand Crugrandcrugames.com | 2011 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Enevoenevo.com | 2012 | Yes | 55 | — |
| Valkeevalkee.com | 2010 | Yes | 34 | — |
| Grey Areagreyarealabs.com | 2010 | Yes | 33 | — |
| Arctic Diagnosticsarcdia.fi | 2012 | No | 19 | — |
| MediSapiensmedisapiens.com | 2010 | No | 16 | — |
| Synoste Oysynoste.fi | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| ProtoGeomoves-app.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Peakpeak.net | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Airstoneairstone.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Nonstop Gamesnonstop-games.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |