Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Lighthouse Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 80.0% (4 of 5 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 37.6%–96.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 5.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+35.1 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
+24.3 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 55.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+10.0 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 70.0%
Vs Y Combinator
+3.5 pp
80.0% on 5 deals vs 76.5%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
5
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Companies
5 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DiVitas Networksclearfly.net | 2006 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| ZestFinancezestfinance.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Mimosa Systemsmimosasystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| ZestCashzestcash.com | 2011 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Revivio | 2005 | No | 27 | — |
| HDmessaginghdmessaging.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |