Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Lightspeed Venture Partners vs Kairos
84th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.7% (62 of 93 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 56.6%–75.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 70th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+22.2 pp
66.7% on 93 deals vs 44.4%
Vs median VC book
+11.7 pp
67.4% on 92 deals vs 55.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-3.3 pp
67.4% on 92 deals vs 70.7%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.3 pp
66.3% on 89 deals vs 68.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 92 of 93 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
90
Mean model percentile
72
Flagged deals
76/7 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 34.4% (22 of 64). 95% Wilson interval 23.9%–46.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.9 pp
34.4% on 64 deals vs 13.5%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
93 labeled follow-on deals, 5 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kosmixkosmix.com | 2005 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| WeFiwefi.com | 2007 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Eyevieweyeviewdigital.com | 2008 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Bromiumbromium.com | 2011 | Yes | 99 | — |
| MyBuysmybuys.com | 2007 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Calista Technologiescalistatechnologies.com | 2007 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Evolvcornerstoneondemand.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Aerohive Networksaerohive.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Bling Nationblingnation.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Delphixdelphix.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| SailPoint Technologiessailpoint.com | 2006 | Yes | 96 | — |
| streamOncestreamonce.com | 2012 | No | 96 | — |
| Leyden Energyleydenenergy.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| Pliant Technologyplianttechnology.com | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Stionstion.com | 2007 | No | 95 | — |
| Identity Enginesidengines.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| KIXEYEkixeye.com | 2008 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Origami Logicorigamilogic.com | 2012 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Nutanixnutanix.com | 2011 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Greentech Mediagreentechmedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| TheFind, Inc.thefind.com | 2005 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Honest Co.honest.com | 2012 | Yes | 93 | — |
| EdgeSpringedgespring.com | 2010 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Ebuzzingebuzzing.com | 2007 | No | 93 | — |
| Cirtas Systemscirtas.com | 2010 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Playdomplaydom.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Blaze DFM | 2007 | No | 92 | — |
| Pertinopertino.com | 2012 | Yes | 92 | — |
| IceBreakericebreaker.mobi | 2007 | No | 90 | — |
| MapR Technologiesmapr.com | 2009 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Serious Businessseriousbusiness.com | 2008 | No | 90 | — |
| Pulsepulseapp.co | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Avocadoavocadopos.com | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| AppDynamicsappdynamics.com | 2008 | Yes | 90 | — |
| PernixDatapernixdata.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Infinioinfinio.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Influitiveinfluitive.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Giftlygiftly.com | 2011 | No | 85 | — |
| Larkgetlark.ai | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Snapchat | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Vestopiavestopia.com | 2007 | No | 84 | — |
| HealthPockethealthpocket.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| Rhythm NewMediarhythmnewmedia.com | 2010 | Yes | 82 | — |
| EAT Clubmyeatclub.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Boundaryboundaryml.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Pivot3pivot3.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Arctic Wolf Networksarcticwolf.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Zscalerzscaler.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Duck Duck Mooseduckduckmoose.com | 2012 | No | 79 | — |
| Focusfocus.com | 2008 | No | 76 | — |
| Embraneembrane.com | 2011 | Yes | 76 | — |
| ZestFinancezestfinance.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Aquantiaaquantia.com | 2005 | Yes | 75 | — |
| OneAssistoneassist.in | 2011 | Yes | 74 | — |
| StreetFirestreetfire.net | 2007 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Ihaveu.comihaveu.com | 2010 | No | 74 | — |
| LimeRoadlimeroad.com | 2012 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Traverse Networks | 2005 | No | 69 | — |
| Apriusaprius.com | 2006 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Valchemy | 2005 | No | 66 | — |
| Appteraapptera.com | 2007 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Mercantilamercantila.com | 2006 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Transparency Softwaretransparencysoftware.com | 2005 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Friend.lyfriend.ly | 2011 | No | 60 | — |
| Craftsvillacraftsvilla.com | 2011 | Yes | 60 | — |
| ZestCashzestcash.com | 2011 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Star Analyticsstaranalytics.com | 2007 | No | 55 | — |
| asklailaasklaila.com | 2007 | No | 55 | — |
| Pixer Technology | 2006 | No | 53 | — |
| Meilelemeilele.com | 2012 | Yes | 52 | — |
| ScaleMPscalemp.com | 2008 | No | 49 | — |
| Stylehivestylehive.com | 2006 | No | 48 | — |
| Personeta | 2004 | Yes | 46 | — |
| CoalTekcoaltek.com | 2007 | No | 44 | — |
| Tintritintri.com | 2011 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Primary Dataprimarydata.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Qubolequbole.com | 2013 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Skybox Securityskyboxsecurity.com | 2006 | No | 40 | — |
| Lucky Pailuckypai.com | 2006 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Link_A_Media Deviceslinkamedia.com | 2009 | Yes | 38 | — |
| IO Turbineioturbine.com | 2011 | No | 37 | — |
| Unity Semiconductorunitysemi.com | 2009 | No | 34 | — |
| AudioPixels | 2007 | No | 32 | — |
| MonoSphere | 2003 | Yes | 27 | — |
| SemEquipsemequip.com | 2005 | No | 26 | — |
| Spreetales | 2012 | No | 24 | — |
| Scodixscodix.com | 2013 | Yes | 19 | — |
| PCH Internationalpchintl.com | 2008 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Extrapriseextraprise.com | 2005 | No | 7 | — |
| Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipmentamec-inc.com | 2004 | Yes | 4 | — |
| Numerifynumerify.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| NuMediinumedii.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Click Securityclicksecurity.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Phone Warriorphonewarrior.mobi | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Jut Incjut.io | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| BTC Chinavip.btcchina.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Xova Labsxova.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Ellacoya Networks | 2001 | No | — | — |