Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

LLR Partners vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 16.7% (1 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 3.0%–56.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.5%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

-30.9 pp

16.7% on 6 deals vs 47.5%

Vs median VC book

-45.2 pp

16.7% on 6 deals vs 61.8%

Vs top-quartile VC

-61.5 pp

16.7% on 6 deals vs 78.2%

Vs Y Combinator

-58.8 pp

16.7% on 6 deals vs 75.5%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

6 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
Pet360pet360.com	2011	No	63	—
SDIsdienterprises.com	2012	No	28	—
Quintiqquintiq.com	2011	No	28	—
VectorLearningvectorlearning.com	2011	No	20	—
Alsbridgealsbridge.com	2013	Yes	15	—
Lightspeedlightspeed.com	2010	No	14	—
Cigitalcigital.com	2013	Unobserved	—	—