Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

Longitude Capital vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 100.0% (6 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 61.0%–100.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 48.5%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

+51.5 pp

100.0% on 6 deals vs 48.5%

Vs median VC book

+34.3 pp

100.0% on 6 deals vs 65.7%

Vs top-quartile VC

+18.3 pp

100.0% on 6 deals vs 81.7%

Vs Y Combinator

+31.1 pp

100.0% on 6 deals vs 68.9%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
Civitas Therapeuticscivitastherapeutics.com	2010	Yes	76	—
Sympara Medical	2013	Yes	70	—
PixelOpticspixeloptics.com	2008	Yes	49	—
Aptus Endosystemsaptusendo.com	2010	Yes	48	—
Allergen Research Corporationallergenresearch.com	2013	Yes	40	—
Solta Medicalsolta.com	2010	Yes	39	—