Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Longworth Venture Partners vs Kairos
81st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 81.3% (13 of 16 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 57.0%–93.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 91st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+38.0 pp
81.3% on 16 deals vs 43.3%
Vs median VC book
+33.4 pp
86.7% on 15 deals vs 53.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
+18.1 pp
86.7% on 15 deals vs 68.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+23.2 pp
92.9% on 14 deals vs 69.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 15 of 16 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
75
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 46.2% (6 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 23.2%–70.9%.
Vs exit base rate
+31.4 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 14.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
16 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scrapblogscrapblog.com | 2006 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Thinking Screen Mediathinkingscreen.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Fliptopfliptop.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| NuoDBnuodb.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| PowerInboxpowerinbox.com | 2011 | Yes | 90 | — |
| SERMOsermo.com | 2006 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Swirl Networksswirl.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Mobiquitymobiquityinc.com | 2011 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Brabeion Softwarebrabeion.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Grab Mediagrab-media.com | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Cellufuncellufun.com | 2007 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Rivermine Softwarerivermine.com | 2005 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Genesis Networksgen-networks.com | 2006 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Innovectrainnovectra.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Marathon Technologiesmarathontechnologies.com | 2004 | No | 19 | — |
| Softricity | 2002 | No | — | — |