Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Ludlow Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 77.8% (7 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 45.3%–93.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.2%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+31.6 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 46.2%
Vs median VC book
+20.6 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 57.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+5.9 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 71.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-1.3 pp
77.8% on 9 deals vs 79.1%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
86
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Circacirca.co | 2012 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| LaunchKeylaunchkey.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Scanscan.me | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| UpToupto.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| uBeamubeam.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Republic Projectrepublicproject.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| Fludflud.it | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Ambassadorgetambassador.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Hipsterhipster.com | 2011 | No | 74 | — |
| Sqwigglesqwiggle.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |