Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Lux Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (5 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.9%–91.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+26.5 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 44.9%
Vs median VC book
+16.0 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 55.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
+0.3 pp
71.4% on 7 deals vs 71.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+3.1 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 63.6%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
7
Mean model percentile
52
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 20.0% (1 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 3.6%–62.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+8.0 pp
20.0% on 5 deals vs 12.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parasol Therapeutics | 2009 | Yes | 99 | — |
| Genocea Biosciencesgenocea.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Kymetakymetacorp.com | 2012 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Evolv Technologiesevolvtechnology.com | 2013 | Yes | 34 | — |
| EverSpin Technologieseverspin.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| Crystal IScisuvc.com | 2006 | No | 21 | — |
| Nanosysnanosysinc.com | 2003 | Yes | 18 | — |