Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Madrona Venture Group vs Kairos
99th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 83.3% (35 of 42 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 69.4%–91.7%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 92nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+38.3 pp
83.3% on 42 deals vs 45.1%
Vs median VC book
+25.8 pp
82.9% on 41 deals vs 57.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
+11.2 pp
82.9% on 41 deals vs 71.7%
Vs Y Combinator
+12.3 pp
81.6% on 38 deals vs 69.3%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 41 of 42 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
39
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
33/3 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 40.0% (14 of 35). 95% Wilson interval 25.6%–56.4%.
Vs exit base rate
+26.6 pp
40.0% on 35 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
42 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Decide.comdecide.com | 2010 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| ShopIgnitershopigniter.com | 2010 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Z2Livez2live.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| Nimbicnimbic.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Yieldexyieldex.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Corensiccorensic.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Optifyoptify.net | 2008 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Appatureappature.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Haiku Deckhaikudeck.com | 2011 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Smartsheetsmartsheet.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Farecastbing.com | 2004 | Yes | 92 | — |
| ExtraHop Networksextrahop.com | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Wonder Workshop (Formerly Play-i)makewonder.com | 2013 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Off & Awayoffandaway.com | 2010 | Yes | 91 | — |
| SNUPI Technologieswallyhome.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| PayScalepayscale.com | 2004 | Yes | 89 | — |
| ThisLifethislife.com | 2012 | No | 87 | — |
| Tier 3tier3.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Mixpomixpo.com | 2006 | No | 86 | — |
| Jintronixjintronix.com | 2012 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Jobalinejobaline.com | 2012 | Yes | 84 | — |
| AdReadyadready.com | 2007 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Placedplaced.com | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Skytapskytap.com | 2007 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Redfinredfin.com | 2005 | Yes | 69 | — |
| Mobilisafemobilisafe.com | 2011 | No | 69 | — |
| Local Marketerslocalmarketers.com | 2006 | Yes | 64 | — |
| Mercent Corporationmercent.com | 2005 | Yes | 58 | — |
| World Wide Packets | 2004 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Bevybevyinc.com | 2007 | No | 52 | — |
| SeaDragon Software | 2005 | No | 50 | — |
| Mobilewallamobilewalla.com | 2013 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Bocadabocada.com | 2005 | Yes | 48 | — |
| Apptioapptio.com | 2007 | Yes | 45 | — |
| SchemaLogicschemalogic.com | 2005 | Yes | 28 | — |
| SourceLabssourcelabs.com | 2006 | No | 26 | — |
| iConcludeiconcloud.co.uk | 2005 | Yes | 15 | — |
| Impinjimpinj.com | 2005 | Yes | 13 | — |
| ePartnersepartnersolutions.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| Datographlab.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| WildTangentwildtangent.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |
| Jama Softwarejamasoftware.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Union Bay Networksunionbaynetworks.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |