Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Magma Venture Partners vs Kairos
64th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 73.3% (11 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 48.0%–89.1%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 81st percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+28.7 pp
73.3% on 15 deals vs 44.6%
Vs median VC book
+18.3 pp
73.3% on 15 deals vs 55.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
+2.9 pp
73.3% on 15 deals vs 70.4%
Vs Y Combinator
+7.0 pp
73.3% on 15 deals vs 66.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
70
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 40.0% (4 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 16.8%–68.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+27.8 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 12.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GreenSQLgreensql.com | 2009 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Taykeytaykey.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Wazewaze.com | 2008 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Onavoinsights.onavo.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Magistomagisto.com | 2010 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Valens Semiconductorvalens.com | 2007 | No | 85 | — |
| CloudEndurecloudendure.com | 2012 | No | 81 | — |
| DesignArt Networksdesignartnetworks.com | 2008 | Yes | 79 | — |
| AppsFlyerappsflyer.com | 2012 | Yes | 76 | — |
| RayVrayv.com | 2007 | Yes | 74 | — |
| PhotoManiaphotomania.net | 2011 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Nipendonipendo.com | 2009 | No | 54 | — |
| TabTaletabtale.com | 2011 | Yes | 38 | — |
| Outsmartoutsmarttelecom.com | 2005 | No | 28 | — |
| Crescendo Networkscrescendonetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 12 | — |
| FortyCloudfortycloud.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |