Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Mangrove Capital Partners vs Kairos
3rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 20.8% (5 of 24 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 9.2%–40.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 11th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-22.6 pp
20.8% on 24 deals vs 43.4%
Vs median VC book
-32.9 pp
20.8% on 24 deals vs 53.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
-47.9 pp
20.8% on 24 deals vs 68.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-43.0 pp
20.8% on 24 deals vs 63.8%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
24
Mean model percentile
69
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 19.0% (4 of 21). 95% Wilson interval 7.7%–40.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+6.0 pp
19.0% on 21 deals vs 13.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
24 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jolicloudjolicloud.com | 2009 | No | 98 | — |
| Cellitycellity.com | 2007 | No | 96 | — |
| Tailgate Technologiestailgatetechnologies.com | 2008 | No | 95 | — |
| OpenXopenx.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Drimmidrimmi.com | 2010 | No | 92 | — |
| DailyDealdailydeal.de | 2010 | No | 89 | — |
| Zliozlio.com | 2007 | No | 88 | — |
| FreedomPopfreedompop.com | 2012 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Evertaleevertale.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| Wixwix.com | 2007 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Quinturaquintura.com | 2006 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Popspops.me | 2012 | No | 76 | — |
| AllPeers | 2006 | No | 76 | — |
| Nonobanonoba.com | 2008 | No | 71 | — |
| KupiVIPkupivip.ru | 2006 | No | 67 | — |
| Screaming Sportsscreamingsports.com | 2007 | No | 65 | — |
| Amusoamuso.com | 2009 | No | 62 | — |
| Joocejooce.com | 2007 | No | 53 | — |
| Piczopiczo.com | 2007 | No | 44 | — |
| KupiBonuskupibonus.ru | 2010 | No | 39 | — |
| EnterMediaentermedia.ru | 2008 | No | 38 | — |
| Nimbuzznimbuzz.com | 2005 | Yes | 36 | — |
| International Sportsbook | 2009 | No | 29 | — |
| SecureWavesecurewave.com | 2005 | No | 26 | — |