Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Masthead Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.0% (7 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.7%–89.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.8%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+29.2 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 40.8%
Vs median VC book
+19.0 pp
66.7% on 9 deals vs 47.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+3.3 pp
66.7% on 9 deals vs 63.3%
Vs Y Combinator
+14.1 pp
83.3% on 6 deals vs 69.2%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 9 of 10 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
9
Mean model percentile
66
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 40.0% (4 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 16.8%–68.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+24.1 pp
40.0% on 10 deals vs 15.9%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Intercastingintercastingcorp.com | 2005 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Nexaweb Inc.nexaweb.com | 2003 | No | 94 | Yes |
| Tizor Systemstizor.com | 2004 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Chumbychumby.com | 2006 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Expoexpo.dev | 2006 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Centric Softwarecentricsoftware.com | 2004 | No | 56 | — |
| TripConnecttripadvisor.com | 2006 | No | 52 | — |
| Genesis Networksgen-networks.com | 2006 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Liquid Machinesliquidmachines.com | 2006 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Autonomic Networksautonomic-networks.com | 2001 | Yes | — | — |