Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Matrix Partners vs Kairos
81st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.2% (43 of 65 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 54.0%–76.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.3%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 69th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+21.9 pp
66.2% on 65 deals vs 44.3%
Vs median VC book
+11.1 pp
66.7% on 63 deals vs 55.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-4.2 pp
66.7% on 63 deals vs 70.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-2.9 pp
65.5% on 58 deals vs 68.4%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 63 of 65 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
61
Mean model percentile
64
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 31.3% (15 of 48). 95% Wilson interval 19.9%–45.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.0 pp
31.3% on 48 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
65 labeled follow-on deals, 4 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skyfire Labsoperasoftware.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| CloudSwitchcloudswitch.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Akorri Networksakorri.com | 2005 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Solidcore Systemssolidcore.com | 2003 | Yes | 95 | Yes |
| CloudBeescloudbees.com | 2010 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Four Interactivefourint.com | 2007 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Buzzwirebuzzwire.com | 2007 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Sparkroomsparkroom.com | 2008 | No | 92 | — |
| ColdWattcoldwatt.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| TalkTotalkto.com | 2012 | No | 92 | — |
| Sqrrlsqrrl.com | 2012 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Qualtréqualtre.com | 2008 | Yes | 89 | — |
| MoboTapmobotap.com | 2011 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Care.comcare.com | 2006 | Yes | 88 | — |
| VideoIQvideoiq.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Work4work4labs.com | 2012 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Diffbotdiffbot.com | 2012 | No | 86 | — |
| Soldusesold.com | 2012 | No | 82 | — |
| Circle Inccircleapp.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Qihoo 360 Technology360.cn | 2006 | Yes | 80 | — |
| The Fanfare Groupfanfaresoftware.com | 2005 | Yes | 80 | — |
| TheLadderstheladders.com | 2004 | No | 79 | — |
| Camiantcamiant.com | 2005 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Gilt Groupegilt.com | 2007 | Yes | 79 | — |
| JustFabcorp.justfab.com | 2011 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Euclid Mediaeuclidmedia.com | 2007 | No | 74 | — |
| Bonanzabonanza.com | 2010 | No | 74 | — |
| LimeRoadlimeroad.com | 2012 | Yes | 72 | — |
| Tigo Energytigoenergy.com | 2008 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Camera360camera360.com | 2012 | Yes | 67 | — |
| TribeHRtribehr.com | 2011 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Affirmed Networksaffirmednetworks.com | 2010 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Rohati Systemsrohati.com | 2007 | Yes | 60 | — |
| AltSchoolaltschool.com | 2013 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Ambarellaambarella.com | 2006 | No | 58 | — |
| Bugsnagbugsnag.com | 2013 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Aruba Networksarubanetworks.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| Blue Lane Technologiesbluelane.com | 2005 | No | 55 | — |
| asklailaasklaila.com | 2007 | No | 55 | — |
| Mazu Networksmazunetworks.com | 2006 | No | 54 | — |
| Renkoorenkoo.com | 2006 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Xikota Devicesstarrf.com | 2007 | No | 52 | — |
| PostPathpostpath.com | 2004 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Salsifysalsify.com | 2013 | Yes | 52 | — |
| Digital Reefdigitalreefinc.com | 2006 | Yes | 50 | — |
| TimeLab | 2005 | No | 48 | — |
| Digital Music India | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Klipklip.com | 2011 | Yes | 47 | — |
| Virtual Iron Softwarevirtualiron.com | 2005 | Yes | 46 | — |
| 9tong.com9tong.com | 2011 | Yes | 40 | — |
| Digiumdigium.com | 2006 | No | 39 | — |
| Canvacanva.com | 2013 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Carbon Design Systemscarbondesignsystems.com | 2004 | Yes | 29 | — |
| OATSystemsoatsystems.com | 2006 | No | 29 | — |
| Crossbeam Systemscrossbeamsystems.com | 2007 | Yes | 27 | — |
| Xtalicxtalic.com | 2008 | Yes | 26 | — |
| Baofengbaofeng.com | 2008 | No | 25 | — |
| Tabblotabblo.com | 2006 | No | 23 | — |
| Diligent Technologiesdiligent.com | 2004 | Yes | 10 | — |
| Equip Outdoor Technologiesequipuk.com | 2011 | No | 9 | — |
| Beijing Sanji Wuxian Internet Technology | 2006 | No | 8 | — |
| Tealeaftealeaf.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Fastback Networksfastbacknetworks.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Intellidenintelliden.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Biscootbiscoot.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Meditrina Hospitalmeditrinahospital.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Techmed Healthcaretechmedhealthcare.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Trafflinetraffline.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Centre for Sightcentreforsight.net | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |