Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Maven Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 0.0% (0 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–32.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.9%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-46.9 pp
0.0% on 8 deals vs 46.9%
Vs median VC book
-57.9 pp
0.0% on 8 deals vs 57.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-72.6 pp
0.0% on 8 deals vs 72.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-69.2 pp
0.0% on 8 deals vs 69.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
19
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 5). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–43.4%.
Vs exit base rate
-10.7 pp
0.0% on 5 deals vs 10.7%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 3 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PrismTechprismtech.com | 2010 | No | 41 | — |
| Vamosavamosa.com | 2009 | No | 27 | — |
| Cal Tech Internationalcaltechinternational.com | 2012 | No | 24 | — |
| Monumental Gamesmonumentalgames.com | 2009 | No | 19 | — |
| Vodat Internationalvodat-int.com | 2012 | No | 17 | — |
| Pentagon Chemicalspentagonchemicals.co.uk | 2009 | No | 12 | — |
| Qireqire.co.uk | 2010 | No | 7 | — |
| Attraction Worldattractionworld.com | 2010 | No | 7 | — |
| HCS Control Systemshcs-control-systems.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Lambert Contractslambertcontracts.co.uk | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Calnex Solutionscalnexsol.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |