Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.

Research book · 3-year follow-on

Maverick Capital vs Kairos

Not ranked

Whole-book follow-on hit rate 71.4% (5 of 7 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 35.9%–91.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.9%. This is not a fund return.

Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 7.

Fund board

Vs same-vintage base rate

+27.6 pp

71.4% on 7 deals vs 43.9%

Vs median VC book

+16.9 pp

71.4% on 7 deals vs 54.5%

Vs top-quartile VC

+0.3 pp

71.4% on 7 deals vs 71.1%

Vs Y Combinator

+2.2 pp

66.7% on 6 deals vs 64.5%

Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.

What Kairos would have said

Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.

Deals with a score

Mean model percentile

Flagged deals

0no labeled flagged deals

Companies

7 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).

Company	Vintage	Follow-on	Kairos percentile	Flagged
OnLiveonlive.com	2007	Yes	84	—
Kakao Corpkakao.com	2011	Yes	51	—
Gridstone Researchgridstoneresearch.com	2006	Yes	50	—
Potbelly Sandwich Workspotbellysandwichworks.com	2006	No	35	—
Perlegen Sciences	2003	Yes	25	—
Ambrxambrx.com	2009	No	19	—
1Life Healthcare1life.com	2013	Yes	19	—