Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Mayfield Fund vs Kairos
33rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (25 of 50 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 36.6%–63.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 43.4%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 40th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+6.6 pp
50.0% on 50 deals vs 43.4%
Vs median VC book
-1.7 pp
53.2% on 47 deals vs 54.9%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.9 pp
53.2% on 47 deals vs 69.1%
Vs Y Combinator
-23.6 pp
47.5% on 40 deals vs 71.1%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 47 of 50 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
45
Mean model percentile
57
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 37.2% (16 of 43). 95% Wilson interval 24.4%–52.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+22.8 pp
37.2% on 43 deals vs 14.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
50 labeled follow-on deals, 4 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TimeBridgetimebridge.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Redbeaconredbeacon.com | 2010 | No | 98 | — |
| Wizewize.com | 2007 | Yes | 98 | — |
| Casabicasabi.com | 2005 | Yes | 94 | — |
| TrueDemand Softwaretdemand.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| DECAdeca.tv | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Pulsepulseapp.co | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| VoloMediavolomedia.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Tribetribe.net | 2003 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Snap Technologiessnap.com | 2005 | No | 88 | — |
| SmartRecruiterssmartrecruiters.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Fixyafixya.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Kiwi Cratekiwicrate.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Poshmarkposhmark.com | 2011 | Yes | 81 | — |
| Elemental Cyber Securityelementalsecurity.com | 2005 | No | 78 | — |
| Tempo AItempo.ai | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Affinity Labsaffinitylabs.com | 2006 | No | 72 | — |
| Zirtualzirtual.com | 2013 | Yes | 71 | — |
| PacketHopdirect.sri.com | 2005 | No | 69 | — |
| Brighter.combrighter.com | 2011 | Yes | 65 | — |
| Ponte Solutions | 2007 | No | 65 | — |
| PlayFirstplayfirst.com | 2004 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Zenprisezenprise.com | 2005 | Yes | 60 | — |
| BigDealbigdeal.com | 2009 | No | 54 | — |
| Quickofficequickoffice.com | 2005 | Yes | 53 | — |
| JotSpotjot.com | 2004 | No | 51 | — |
| LV Sensorslvsensors.com | 2007 | No | 50 | — |
| BlackArrowblackarrow.tv | 2004 | Yes | 49 | — |
| AudienceScienceaudiencescience.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| Prime Venture Partnersangelprime.com | 2012 | No | 48 | — |
| PingCo.compingco.com | 2006 | No | 45 | — |
| Narusnarus.com | 2006 | Yes | 45 | — |
| Acclaim Gamesacclaim.com | 2007 | No | 41 | — |
| Informance Internationalinformance.com | 2005 | No | 40 | — |
| Paymatepaymate.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| T-RAM Semiconductort-ram.com | 2005 | No | 24 | — |
| Mendocino Softwaredciginc.com | 2004 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Fultec Semiconductor | 2006 | No | 20 | — |
| Subtextsubtext.com | 2011 | No | 17 | — |
| Electric Cloudelectric-cloud.com | 2004 | Yes | 17 | — |
| BeVocalbevocal.com | 2005 | No | 15 | — |
| Ubicomubicom.com | 2004 | Yes | 12 | — |
| Webrootwebroot.com | 2005 | No | 10 | — |
| Bharat Matrimonybharatmatrimony.com | 2008 | No | 7 | — |
| Perfect Commerceperfect.com | 2005 | No | 2 | — |
| Sylantrosylantro.com | 2000 | No | — | — |
| The Beer Caféthebeercafe.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| TrustRadiustrustradius.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| EasilyDoeasilydo.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| ONStoronstor.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Syntertainmentsyntertainment.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| India Property Onlineindiaproperty.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Amagi Media Labsamagi.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Teja Technologies | 2002 | No | — | — |