Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
MedImmune Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 70.0% (7 of 10 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 39.7%–89.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 10.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+27.4 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
+17.3 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 52.7%
Vs top-quartile VC
+1.8 pp
70.0% on 10 deals vs 68.2%
Vs Y Combinator
+23.6 pp
85.7% on 7 deals vs 62.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
74
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 30.0% (3 of 10). 95% Wilson interval 10.8%–60.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.6 pp
30.0% on 10 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
10 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NKT Therapeuticsnktrx.com | 2009 | Yes | 95 | — |
| Avidiaavidia.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Applied Genetics Technologies Corporationagtc.com | 2003 | No | 91 | — |
| Inotek Pharmaceuticalsinotekcorp.com | 2004 | No | 90 | — |
| Corridor Pharmaceuticalscorridorpharma.com | 2008 | Yes | 87 | — |
| VaxInnatevaxinnate.com | 2004 | Yes | 82 | — |
| Melintamelinta.com | 2009 | Yes | 69 | — |
| VLST Corporationvlstcorp.com | 2006 | No | 56 | — |
| G1 Therapeutics, Inc.g1therapeutics.com | 2013 | Yes | 53 | — |
| LigoCyte Pharmaceuticalsligocyte.com | 2008 | Yes | 22 | — |