Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Menlo Ventures vs Kairos
44th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 51.4% (37 of 72 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.1%–62.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.1%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 45th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+9.3 pp
51.4% on 72 deals vs 42.1%
Vs median VC book
+0.3 pp
52.2% on 67 deals vs 52.0%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.1 pp
52.2% on 67 deals vs 67.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-18.6 pp
48.2% on 56 deals vs 66.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 67 of 72 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
66
Mean model percentile
63
Flagged deals
55/5 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 34.4% (22 of 64). 95% Wilson interval 23.9%–46.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+20.4 pp
34.4% on 64 deals vs 14.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
72 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| mywavesmywaves.com | 2006 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Sirisiri.com | 2008 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Cellfireinfo.cellfire.com | 2005 | Yes | 99 | Yes |
| Readyforcereadyforce.com | 2010 | No | 98 | — |
| Avere Systemsaveresystems.com | 2009 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Firetidefiretide.com | 2003 | Yes | 95 | Yes |
| Voltage Securityvoltage.com | 2003 | Yes | 94 | Yes |
| Mobius Microsystemsmobiusmicro.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| GreenNotegreennote.com | 2007 | No | 92 | — |
| Livingly Medialivingly.com | 2007 | No | 91 | — |
| Scanscan.me | 2012 | Yes | 90 | — |
| NebuAdmuniwireless.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| SpeedDatespeeddate.com | 2007 | Yes | 89 | — |
| PlaySpanplayspan.com | 2007 | Yes | 88 | — |
| RNA Networksrnanetworks.com | 2009 | No | 87 | — |
| PlayPhoneplayphone.com | 2006 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Backplanethebackplane.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Telenavtelenav.com | 2006 | No | 86 | — |
| Handlehandle.com | 2011 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Mr. Numbermrnumber.com | 2011 | No | 84 | — |
| MailFrontiermailfrontier.com | 2003 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Muncherymunchery.com | 2011 | Yes | 83 | — |
| TalkPlustalkplus.com | 2006 | No | 82 | — |
| Kidaptivekidaptive.com | 2012 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Enuclia Semiconductor | 2006 | No | 78 | — |
| Enflickenflick.com | 2011 | No | 78 | — |
| Entone Technologiesentone.com | 2003 | No | 78 | — |
| Asempra Technologies | 2006 | No | 77 | — |
| Q1 Labsq1labs.com | 2003 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Rivulet Communicationsrivulet.com | 2007 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Propellerusepropeller.com | 2013 | No | 71 | — |
| Aquest Systemsaquestsystems.com | 2007 | No | 70 | — |
| PowerReviewspowerreviews.com | 2005 | Yes | 70 | — |
| Parascaleparascale.com | 2008 | No | 67 | — |
| Vocentvocent.com | 2005 | No | 67 | — |
| VT Siliconvtsilicon.com | 2007 | Yes | 63 | — |
| LensVectorlensvector.com | 2010 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Texas Instrumentsti.com | 2005 | Yes | 63 | — |
| AnsibleWorksansibleworks.com | 2013 | No | 62 | — |
| Encirq Corporationencirq.com | 2006 | No | 61 | — |
| Stretchstretchinc.com | 2006 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Matisse Networksmatissenetworks.com | 2006 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Santur Corporationsanturcorp.com | 2005 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Tracks.by | 2012 | Yes | 49 | — |
| WiQuest Communicationswiquest.com | 2004 | Yes | 49 | — |
| CinemaNowcinemanow.com | 2004 | No | 48 | — |
| Movaz Networks | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| Crowdcastcrowdcast.com | 2010 | No | 45 | — |
| Tablus | 2006 | No | 44 | — |
| Bluesocketbluesocket.com | 2003 | Yes | 43 | — |
| Cinemagramcinemagr.am | 2012 | No | 39 | — |
| BigTent Designbigtent.com | 2008 | Yes | 37 | — |
| ePAC Technologiesepac.com | 2006 | No | 33 | — |
| AeroScoutaeroscout.com | 2007 | Yes | 33 | — |
| INVIDI Technologiesinvidi.com | 2004 | Yes | 30 | — |
| Centrality Communications | 2005 | No | 30 | — |
| sellpointssellpoints.com | 2008 | No | 26 | — |
| Nexxo Financialnexxofinancial.com | 2008 | No | 25 | — |
| Neterionneterion.com | 2003 | Yes | 23 | — |
| Vhayu Technologiesvhayu.com | 2005 | No | 19 | — |
| VBrick Systems, Inc.vbrick.com | 2008 | No | 15 | — |
| Questraquestra.com | 2006 | No | 15 | — |
| EPAC Software Technologiesepacst.com | 2008 | No | 12 | — |
| DriveCamdrivecam.com | 2005 | Yes | 11 | — |
| Peopleclick Authoriaauthoria.com | 2004 | No | 7 | — |
| Broncus Technologies, Inc.broncus.com | 2008 | No | 2 | — |
| PandoDailypando.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| IronPort Systemsironport.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| newScalenewscale.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Emu Messengeremu.is | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| CREDANT Technologiescredant.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| Netcontinuumbarracuda.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| Hoteles y Clubs de Vacaciones SA | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Sequence Designsequencedesign.com | 2002 | No | — | — |