Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Meritech Capital Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (3 of 9 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 12.1%–64.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.1%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 9.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-10.8 pp
33.3% on 9 deals vs 44.1%
Vs median VC book
-31.2 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 56.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-45.0 pp
25.0% on 8 deals vs 70.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-41.0 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 69.6%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 8 of 9 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
26
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 44.4% (4 of 9). 95% Wilson interval 18.9%–73.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+29.9 pp
44.4% on 9 deals vs 14.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
9 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reliant Technologiesreliant-tech.com | 2007 | No | 51 | — |
| Movaz Networks | 2006 | No | 47 | — |
| lynda.comlynda.com | 2013 | Yes | 28 | — |
| OPENLANEopenlane.com | 2008 | No | 27 | — |
| White Rock Networkswhiterock.com | 2005 | No | 21 | — |
| Azul Systemsazulsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 19 | — |
| Extrapriseextraprise.com | 2005 | No | 7 | — |
| MetraTechmetratech.com | 2004 | No | 5 | — |
| Agility Communicationsjdsu.com | 2000 | Yes | — | — |