Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Merseyside Special Investment Fund vs Kairos
1st percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 0.0% (0 of 15 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–20.4%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.8%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 2nd percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-42.8 pp
0.0% on 15 deals vs 42.8%
Vs median VC book
-52.1 pp
0.0% on 15 deals vs 52.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-67.0 pp
0.0% on 15 deals vs 67.0%
Vs Y Combinator
-65.3 pp
0.0% on 15 deals vs 65.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
15
Mean model percentile
41
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 0.0% (0 of 13). 95% Wilson interval 0.0%–22.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-14.6 pp
0.0% on 13 deals vs 14.6%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
15 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| So Protect Mesoprotectme.com | 2007 | No | 90 | — |
| SLR Technology Solutionsslr-solutions.eu | 2006 | No | 68 | — |
| Flasmaflasma.com | 2008 | No | 67 | — |
| Decision Curvedecisioncurve.com | 2006 | No | 58 | — |
| Editliteyourview.tv | 2007 | No | 52 | — |
| Jade Solutionsjade-solutions.co.uk | 2005 | No | 43 | — |
| Taecanettaecanet.com | 2007 | No | 37 | — |
| PalindromXpalindromx.co.uk | 2007 | No | 31 | — |
| Alaigetalai.com | 2006 | No | 30 | — |
| NWIXnwix.com | 2012 | No | 28 | — |
| iXpertixpert.co.uk | 2007 | No | 26 | — |
| Paver Downes Associatespaverdownes.co.uk | 2006 | No | 25 | — |
| P&R Labpakprlabs.co.uk | 2012 | No | 20 | — |
| Cull Micro Imagingcull.co.uk | 2005 | No | 20 | — |
| Genemation | 2006 | No | 14 | — |
| Sovexsovexsystems.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |