Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Merus Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 33.3% (2 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 9.7%–70.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-11.9 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 45.3%
Vs median VC book
-23.3 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 56.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-38.8 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 72.2%
Vs Y Combinator
-35.9 pp
33.3% on 6 deals vs 69.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
60
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 66.7% (4 of 6). 95% Wilson interval 30.0%–90.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+55.6 pp
66.7% on 6 deals vs 11.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ModeWalkmodewalk.com | 2012 | No | 86 | — |
| Corona Labscoronalabs.com | 2009 | Yes | 84 | — |
| Runarunahr.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| AllClear IDallclearid.com | 2008 | No | 39 | — |
| IO Turbineioturbine.com | 2011 | No | 37 | — |
| Authentic8authentic8.com | 2010 | No | 33 | — |