Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Metamorphic Ventures vs Kairos
38th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 57.1% (12 of 21 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 36.5%–75.5%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.2%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 49th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+11.9 pp
57.1% on 21 deals vs 45.2%
Vs median VC book
+0.5 pp
57.1% on 21 deals vs 56.6%
Vs top-quartile VC
-15.2 pp
57.1% on 21 deals vs 72.3%
Vs Y Combinator
-8.5 pp
57.1% on 21 deals vs 65.7%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
20
Mean model percentile
70
Flagged deals
11/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 41.2% (7 of 17). 95% Wilson interval 21.6%–64.0%.
Vs exit base rate
+29.1 pp
41.2% on 17 deals vs 12.1%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
21 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| isocketisocket.com | 2009 | Yes | 100 | Yes |
| Good Health Mediasideeffectsof.co | 2009 | Yes | 92 | — |
| ORCA, Inc.orcaone.com | 2009 | No | 89 | — |
| MyLikesmylikes.com | 2010 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Lenddolenddo.com | 2012 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Mass Relevancespredfast.com | 2010 | Yes | 88 | — |
| Encoding.comencoding.com | 2010 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Movable Inkmovableink.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Changochango.com | 2010 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Tapadtapad.com | 2011 | Yes | 82 | — |
| EasyCopayeasycopay.com | 2006 | No | 81 | — |
| FetchBackfetchback.com | 2008 | No | 71 | — |
| Playnomicsplaynomics.com | 2009 | Yes | 71 | — |
| Madison Logicmadisonlogic.com | 2007 | No | 70 | — |
| Precision Health Mediaprecisionhealthmedia.com | 2012 | Yes | 66 | — |
| Brightgeist Mediabrightgeist.com | 2006 | No | 58 | — |
| Fast Assetfastasset.com | 2007 | No | 36 | — |
| My Sourceboxmysourcebox.com | 2008 | No | 20 | — |
| Recogniarecognia.com | 2007 | No | 19 | — |
| OfferIQ | 2010 | No | 18 | — |
| TapCommercetapcommerce.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| ShopSocially.comshopsocial.com | 2011 | Unobserved | — | — |