Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
MHS Capital vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 75.0% (6 of 8 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 40.9%–92.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 8.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+29.0 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 46.0%
Vs median VC book
+15.6 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 59.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-0.6 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 75.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+8.7 pp
75.0% on 8 deals vs 66.3%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
8
Mean model percentile
79
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (2 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 8.2%–64.1%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.4 pp
28.6% on 7 deals vs 11.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
8 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VentureBeatventurebeat.com | 2008 | No | 99 | Yes |
| Convertroconvertro.com | 2009 | Yes | 97 | — |
| HowAboutWehowaboutwe.com | 2010 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Udemyudemy.com | 2010 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Applifierapplifier.com | 2011 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Simply Measuredsimplymeasured.com | 2010 | Yes | 68 | — |
| magnify360magnify360.com | 2008 | No | 64 | — |
| Sprigsprig.com | 2013 | Yes | 53 | — |
| Combatant Gentlemencombatgent.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Handshakehandshake-app.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |