Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Michigan Pre-Seed Capital Fund vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 50.0% (3 of 6 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 18.8%–81.2%. Vintage-weighted base rate 46.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 6.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+3.4 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 46.6%
Vs median VC book
-7.1 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 57.1%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.8 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 71.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-25.4 pp
50.0% on 6 deals vs 75.4%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
6
Mean model percentile
42
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Companies
6 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seelioseelio.com | 2012 | Yes | 79 | — |
| Blaze Medical Devicesblazemedicaldevices.com | 2012 | Yes | 54 | — |
| Varsity News Networkvarsitynewsnetwork.com | 2012 | Yes | 40 | — |
| LEID Productsleidproducts.com | 2011 | No | 30 | — |
| Arbor Plastic Technologiesarborplastic.com | 2011 | No | 26 | — |
| Mandy & Pandymandyandpandy.com | 2009 | No | 24 | — |