Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Milestone Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 46.2% (6 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 23.2%–70.9%. Vintage-weighted base rate 42.6%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+3.6 pp
46.2% on 13 deals vs 42.6%
Vs median VC book
-3.3 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 53.3%
Vs top-quartile VC
-18.8 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 68.8%
Vs Y Combinator
-11.9 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 61.9%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 12 of 13 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
54
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 36.4% (4 of 11). 95% Wilson interval 15.2%–64.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+24.0 pp
36.4% on 11 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FieldView Solutionsfieldviewsolutions.com | 2009 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Vitalsvitals.com | 2008 | No | 84 | — |
| GQ Life Sciencesgqlifesciences.com | 2005 | Yes | 73 | — |
| Peridrome Corporationperidrome.com | 2008 | No | 63 | — |
| Outside.inoutside.in | 2007 | Yes | 61 | — |
| Identropyidentropy.com | 2012 | No | 59 | — |
| Halfpenny Technologieshalfpenny.com | 2010 | Yes | 58 | — |
| Worktopiaworktopia.com | 2007 | Yes | 54 | — |
| SkillSurveyskillsurvey.com | 2008 | No | 40 | — |
| MedPageTodaymedpagetoday.com | 2007 | No | 31 | — |
| Searchandise Commercesearchandise.net | 2008 | Yes | 24 | — |
| protected-networks.comprotected-networks.com | 2011 | No | 15 | — |
| Knovelknovel.com | 2002 | No | — | — |