Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Miramar Venture Partners vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 53.8% (7 of 13 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 29.1%–76.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 45.0%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 13.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+8.9 pp
53.8% on 13 deals vs 45.0%
Vs median VC book
-7.4 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 57.4%
Vs top-quartile VC
-21.5 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 71.5%
Vs Y Combinator
-21.7 pp
50.0% on 12 deals vs 71.7%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 12 of 13 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
12
Mean model percentile
68
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 25.0% (3 of 12). 95% Wilson interval 8.9%–53.2%.
Vs exit base rate
+10.6 pp
25.0% on 12 deals vs 14.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
13 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AccelOpsaccelops.com | 2007 | No | 93 | — |
| FastSoftfastsoft.com | 2007 | Yes | 91 | — |
| Starport Systemsstarportsys.com | 2005 | No | 90 | — |
| Factualfactual.com | 2010 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Azuroazuro.com | 2006 | No | 81 | — |
| Tempo AItempo.ai | 2011 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Cirrocirro.com | 2013 | Yes | 75 | — |
| Brand Affinity Technologiesbrandaffinity.net | 2010 | Yes | 74 | — |
| Coradiantcoradiant.com | 2005 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Aktinoaktino.com | 2005 | No | 47 | — |
| CaseRev | 2006 | No | 24 | — |
| Solarflare Communicationssolarflare.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| Tararitarari.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| On The Run Techontheruntech.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |
| SwiftTestswifttest.com | 2012 | Unobserved | — | — |