Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Mission Ventures vs Kairos
63rd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 62.5% (15 of 24 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 42.7%–78.8%. Vintage-weighted base rate 40.6%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 69th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+21.9 pp
62.5% on 24 deals vs 40.6%
Vs median VC book
+12.3 pp
62.5% on 24 deals vs 50.2%
Vs top-quartile VC
-2.9 pp
62.5% on 24 deals vs 65.4%
Vs Y Combinator
-7.9 pp
55.0% on 20 deals vs 62.9%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
24
Mean model percentile
73
Flagged deals
21/2 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 31.8% (7 of 22). 95% Wilson interval 16.4%–52.7%.
Vs exit base rate
+17.7 pp
31.8% on 22 deals vs 14.2%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
24 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VMIX Mediavmix.com | 2006 | Yes | 98 | Yes |
| RockeTalkrocketalk.com | 2007 | No | 98 | Yes |
| LeisureLinkleisurelink.com | 2007 | No | 98 | — |
| Kalon Semiconductor | 2006 | No | 97 | — |
| Big Stagebigstage.com | 2007 | Yes | 97 | — |
| Slackerslacker.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Greenplum Softwaregreenplum.com | 2006 | Yes | 93 | — |
| Alpine Data Labsalpinenow.com | 2011 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Nirvanix | 2007 | Yes | 90 | — |
| Snapbridge Software | 2003 | Yes | 85 | — |
| Transaction Wirelesstransactionwireless.com | 2008 | Yes | 83 | — |
| Alignent Softwarealignent.com | 2005 | No | 79 | — |
| MarginPointmarginpoint.com | 2006 | No | 70 | — |
| Mochilamochila.com | 2007 | Yes | 70 | — |
| TelASIC Communicationstelasic.com | 2003 | Yes | 67 | — |
| Logical Appsoracle.com | 2005 | No | 67 | — |
| DevZuzdevzuz.com | 2007 | No | 63 | — |
| Vativ Technologies | 2005 | Yes | 55 | — |
| TeleCommunication Systemstelecomsys.com | 2004 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Networks in Motionnetworksinmotion.com | 2004 | Yes | 47 | — |
| RotoHogrotohog.com | 2007 | Yes | 46 | — |
| Netseernetseer.com | 2009 | Yes | 45 | — |
| MaxLinearmaxlinear.com | 2007 | No | 39 | — |
| Eveoeveo.com | 2012 | No | 30 | — |