Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
MMC Ventures vs Kairos
Not ranked
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 41.7% (5 of 12 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 19.3%–68.0%. Vintage-weighted base rate 47.3%. This is not a fund return.
Not ranked. A book needs at least 15 labeled deals with a vintage base rate. This one has 12.
Vs same-vintage base rate
-5.6 pp
41.7% on 12 deals vs 47.3%
Vs median VC book
-19.8 pp
41.7% on 12 deals vs 61.5%
Vs top-quartile VC
-34.9 pp
41.7% on 12 deals vs 76.6%
Vs Y Combinator
-30.5 pp
41.7% on 12 deals vs 72.2%
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
10
Mean model percentile
50
Flagged deals
0no labeled flagged deals
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 14.3% (1 of 7). 95% Wilson interval 2.6%–51.3%.
Vs exit base rate
+1.8 pp
14.3% on 7 deals vs 12.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
12 labeled follow-on deals, 2 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Breathing Buildingsbreathingbuildings.com | 2009 | No | 96 | — |
| KnowledgeMillknowledgemill.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| Clash Media Advertisingclash-media.com | 2007 | Yes | 76 | — |
| Love Home Swaplovehomeswap.com | 2012 | Yes | 67 | — |
| ALEXANDALEXAalexandalexa.com | 2010 | No | 54 | — |
| Base79base79.com | 2011 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Interactive Investoriii.co.uk | 2011 | No | 33 | — |
| Integrated International Payrolliipay.com | 2005 | No | 16 | — |
| Small World Financial Services Groupsmallworldfs.com | 2010 | No | 14 | — |
| E-Trader Groupe-tradergroup.com | 2010 | No | 10 | — |
| Wool and the Gangwoolandthegang.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Appear Hereappearhere.co.uk | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Inveniasinvenias.com | 2013 | Yes | — | — |
| Wedo Shoppingwedo.co.uk | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |