Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Mobius Venture Capital vs Kairos
22nd percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 44.4% (8 of 18 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 24.6%–66.3%. Vintage-weighted base rate 41.9%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 34th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+2.6 pp
44.4% on 18 deals vs 41.9%
Vs median VC book
-4.8 pp
47.1% on 17 deals vs 51.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-17.8 pp
47.1% on 17 deals vs 64.9%
Vs Y Combinator
-36.8 pp
35.7% on 14 deals vs 72.5%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 17 of 18 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
17
Mean model percentile
52
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 11.1% (2 of 18). 95% Wilson interval 3.1%–32.8%.
Vs exit base rate
-3.9 pp
11.1% on 18 deals vs 15.0%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
18 labeled follow-on deals, 0 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ReaMetrixreametrix.com | 2005 | No | 98 | Yes |
| MessageCastweb.archive.org | 2005 | No | 94 | — |
| Loyalty Labloyaltylab.com | 2005 | Yes | 92 | — |
| Blaze DFM | 2007 | No | 92 | — |
| Oxlo Systemsoxlo.com | 2005 | No | 84 | — |
| VipVentavipventa.com | 2008 | No | 73 | — |
| Sling Mediaslingbox.com | 2004 | Yes | 68 | — |
| Planitax | 2003 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Newmerixnewmerix.com | 2006 | Yes | 62 | — |
| Rally Softwarerallydev.com | 2006 | Yes | 50 | — |
| Bioapter | 2007 | No | 26 | — |
| Sitrionsitrion.com | 2004 | Yes | 20 | — |
| deCartadecarta.com | 2005 | Yes | 18 | — |
| Mobile Security Software | 2006 | No | 14 | — |
| Impinjimpinj.com | 2005 | Yes | 13 | — |
| ePartnersepartnersolutions.com | 2005 | No | 11 | — |
| Perfect Commerceperfect.com | 2005 | No | 2 | — |
| Concuityconcuity.com | 2002 | No | — | — |