Reconstructed first-round book from the research data, not a scrape of today's website. Public portfolio pages over-report winners, and this graph has the same public-data bias. Investor edges are essentially Crunchbase through late 2015, plus Y Combinator.
Research book · 3-year follow-on
Mohr Davidow Ventures vs Kairos
78th percentile
Whole-book follow-on hit rate 66.0% (33 of 50 labeled deals). 95% Wilson interval 52.2%–77.6%. Vintage-weighted base rate 44.0%. This is not a fund return.
Among 233 eligible VC books with at least 15 labeled deals. Published raw-excess percentile in the research file: 69th percentile.
Vs same-vintage base rate
+22.0 pp
66.0% on 50 deals vs 44.0%
Vs median VC book
+11.6 pp
67.4% on 46 deals vs 55.8%
Vs top-quartile VC
-3.2 pp
67.4% on 46 deals vs 70.6%
Vs Y Combinator
+3.7 pp
70.5% on 44 deals vs 66.8%
Median and top-quartile VC benchmarks exist only through 2015. That comparison uses 46 of 50 labeled deals. Later deals stay in the hit rate and the base-rate comparison.
Ranked when at least 15 labeled deals have a vintage base rate. Rank is the average-rank percentile of shrunk excess (20 pseudo-deals at that book's vintage base rate) among eligible VC books that clear the same minimum. 100 is best. The whole book is never compared to Kairos's top-50 hit rate.
What Kairos would have said
Scores are the model’s percentile at each company’s first observed funding event, not at a later round. That matches this fund’s entry only when the fund was in the first-round syndicate. A deal is flagged when its percentile clears that vintage’s top-50 cutoff. The whole book is not compared to the top-50 hit rate.
Deals with a score
46
Mean model percentile
70
Flagged deals
10/1 followed on
Five-year exit, secondary
Five-year exit labels are observable mainly for 2005–2010. A missing later exit is not counted as a failure. This panel is not the ranking.
Hit rate 28.6% (12 of 42). 95% Wilson interval 17.2%–43.6%.
Vs exit base rate
+15.2 pp
28.6% on 42 deals vs 13.4%
Vs median VC exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Vs top-quartile exit book
—
No overlapping vintages
Companies
50 labeled follow-on deals, 1 matched without an observable label (dropped, not counted as failures).
| Company | Vintage | Follow-on | Kairos percentile | Flagged |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rocket Fuelrocketfuel.com | 2008 | Yes | 98 | — |
| HealthTaphealthtap.com | 2010 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Mantaramantara.com | 2007 | Yes | 96 | — |
| Xambalaxambala.com | 2004 | No | 96 | Yes |
| hi5hi5.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| ParAccelparaccel.com | 2007 | Yes | 94 | — |
| VitaPath Geneticsvpgenetics.com | 2009 | Yes | 94 | — |
| Genomaticagenomatica.com | 2010 | Yes | 90 | — |
| InnerWorkingsinnerworkings.com | 2005 | Yes | 90 | — |
| PunchTabpunchtab.com | 2011 | Yes | 89 | — |
| SIPXsipx.com | 2012 | Yes | 89 | — |
| Wellowello.com | 2012 | No | 89 | — |
| Brickstreambrickstream.com | 2003 | No | 88 | — |
| iRhythm Technologiesirhythmtech.com | 2007 | Yes | 87 | — |
| Sequentasequenta.com | 2010 | Yes | 86 | — |
| Rock Healthrockhealth.com | 2011 | Yes | 85 | — |
| On-Q-ityon-q-ity.com | 2009 | Yes | 83 | — |
| GridIron Systemsgridironsystems.com | 2012 | No | 83 | — |
| Tethys BioSciencetethysbio.com | 2005 | Yes | 82 | — |
| CardioDxcardiodx.com | 2006 | No | 82 | — |
| Massive Healthmassivehealth.com | 2011 | No | 81 | — |
| Zebit, Inc.zebit.com | 2012 | Yes | 80 | — |
| Carrier IQcarrieriq.com | 2006 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Storefrontthestorefront.com | 2013 | Yes | 78 | — |
| Finspherefinsphere.com | 2008 | Yes | 77 | — |
| Neuropureneuropure.com | 2007 | No | 75 | — |
| Media Machinesmediamachines.wordpress.com | 2007 | No | 69 | — |
| Bio Architecture Labba-lab.com | 2008 | Yes | 63 | — |
| Helpstreamhelpstream.com | 2008 | No | 63 | — |
| Cenziccenzic.com | 2005 | No | 60 | — |
| Pacific Biosciencespacificbiosciences.com | 2005 | Yes | 59 | — |
| Yiftee, Inc.yiftee.com | 2013 | Yes | 57 | — |
| VaST Systems Technologyvastsystems.com | 2005 | Yes | 56 | — |
| Adamas Pharmaceuticalsadamaspharma.com | 2005 | Yes | 51 | — |
| Laurus Energylaurusenergy.com | 2008 | No | 50 | — |
| AudienceScienceaudiencescience.com | 2005 | No | 49 | — |
| Recurrent Energyrecurrentenergy.com | 2007 | Yes | 49 | — |
| Adapt Technologiesadapt.com | 2005 | No | 45 | — |
| Packetmotionpacketmotion.com | 2006 | Yes | 42 | — |
| Infusionsoftinfusionsoft.com | 2007 | Yes | 39 | — |
| Sensity Systemssensity.com | 2013 | Yes | 37 | — |
| BigTent Designbigtent.com | 2008 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Navigenicsnavigenics.com | 2007 | Yes | 37 | — |
| Hycretehycrete.com | 2008 | No | 33 | — |
| The Personal Bee | 2006 | No | 32 | — |
| Neon Labsneon-lab.com | 2013 | Yes | 28 | — |
| Sabrixsabrix.com | 2002 | No | — | — |
| FIGSwearfigs.com | 2013 | Unobserved | — | — |
| Movarismovaris.com | 2002 | Yes | — | — |
| Panasaspanasas.com | 2001 | No | — | — |
| nLIGHT Corp.nlight.net | 2001 | Yes | — | — |